MENTHOL REPORT PRESENTED BY KV AROMATICS, INDIA
The production of Crude Mentha Oil had been good, as expected, but due to an acute shortage of the finished products in the international market, the prices of both the finished products & the Oil were high initially, though the availability of Oil was also quite good.
Present:
Since almost last two months, market has been quite stable and the rate
for Mentha Oil are approx. INR 1500 per Kg. The exchange rate of US Dollar v/s Indian Rupee, which also plays a vital role in the finished goods pricing, is also stable for a while now.
However the prices of Finished Goods have come down because the initial shortage has been covered to some extent by the purchasers & resultantly, the difference between Mentha Oil & the Finished Goods has reduced to an almost normal level. Another reason for this dip is that the Indian Government has imposed a ban in many Indian states on the sales of chewing tobacco based products which has been one of the major consumers of Menthol Crystals in India.
This has resulted in a substantial dip in the manufacturing of commercial grade crystals and as a result , a less demand from the domestic Indian consumers. Another major factor which is also playing a role in these lower prices of finished goods & stable prices of Mentha Oil is the fact that there is a huge stock of approx. 17000-18000 Drums of Mentha Oil on MCX, which is the largest in the history of Mentha Oil trading of MCX. It indicates that there is a major seller & major buyer involved & some manipulation is being planned. However, whenever this quantity will come up for selling, it will only be sold if it is below the physical spot Oil prices & hence there is an overall feeling that this might push the prices down.
All these factors have kept the prices stable.
Future:
If we evaluate the overall situation, we find that the estimated production has been satisfactory to good. After the initial phase, now most of the Oil is with the farmers & stockists & it is slowly coming to the market. MCX has a huge stock which will eventually come to the market, and when it happens, it might suppress the market.
On the other hand, the arrival has reduced relatively. Farmers & stockists have experienced high prices last year & this year too. At lower prices, if they decide to hold the material, we might also see an upward trend.
Hence we can say that as of now, the market is stable but it is again a very confusing picture & it is very difficult to estimate the future scenario at this stage. We will definitely update as & when a situation or a clear outlook develops.
Thanks & Regards
Himanshu Agarwal
Director
K. V. Aromatics Private Limited