In continuation to our earlier market reports, we are once again presenting the current market report of a present scenario.
Since our last market report, USD fluctuated a lot in the last few weeks. From a level of INR 58-60 per USD, it went up to INR 69 per USD and then again came down to INR 61-62 per USD. But at the same time Mentha Oil also followed suit & when USD appreciated, Mentha Oil prices in India also went up to INR 1050 per Kg and with the depreciation of USD again, the Oil prices also came down to a level of INR 940-950 per Kg.
This resulted in a more or less stability or a slight decrease in the export prices of Oil but they did not increase due to very little demand at that time.
The current price of Mentha oil in India is INR 940-945 per Kg and the USD conversion is in the range of INR 61.5-62 per USD. The USD is looking quite stable at the current conversion & as per the general economic situation of India & the opinion of the market experts, the forecast is that it will move within a narrow range between INR 63 to INR 59-60 in the near future.
The arrival of Oil is very less at the current prices but on the other hand, the demand is also very less. This situation of farmers/stockists looking for better prices & buyers looking for more competent rates have squeezed the manufacturing margins of the manufacturers at an unprecedented low level which has resulted in the suspension of work in almost 30-40% manufacturing units.
The farmers & stockists are quite worried because the average cost of their own stock is at a much higher price range between INR 1050-1100 per Kg whereas the current prices are much lesser. Because of this scenario, a lot of Oil is in stock & we ourselves feel that since the stockists won’t sell at lower prices & the customers won’t buy at higher prices, the carryover stock for the next season will be much higher than usual.
MCX is also playing a major role in keeping the prices to their current level as it has a huge stock of approx. 2600 MT & in case of any rise in prices from their current level, this stock will also come in the market.
From the overall scenario & ground zero information, it seems that the arrival of Oil in the market will be quite less in the near future also till the current prices prevail. The buyers will also not be ready to buy at higher prices. This situation, combined with the stock at MCX will keep the market more or less stable in the next 8-10 weeks.
But we also feel that around January-March 2014, there should be a slight increase in the Mentha Oil prices as the MCX stock will be diluted to a certain extent till then & better prices will motivate the farmers to plant more crop as that will be the planting season as well.
The General Elections in India are also scheduled in May 2014 & it is anticipated that there will be a change of Government & a more business friendly & pro-active government other than the current one will be formed. This will become clearer in 1st quarter of 2014 & it is expected that the overall economic scenario & the share markets will respond positively to this change. This will help INR to appreciate vis-à-vis USD & we may see USD easing to below INR 60 at that time, which ,may also push up the export prices in the 1st quarter of 2014.
We’ll keep you all updated on the developments as & when they happen & we hope our reports will help you in some manner to plan your buying.